On Election Predictions for 2020

I decided to write down some of my election predictions for fun and accountability. You can’t have fun if you don’t put yourself out there, right? Here’s how I think some of it might go:

Broadly, I think Biden will win but it will be close, with him capturing less than 300 electoral votes. I foresee especially close races in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The early vote and absentee ballot-counting procedures in PA in particular make it unlikely to be called Tuesday night. This will create a significant amount of ambiguity in the outcome with neither candidate getting over 270 electoral votes without PA. Trump may use this as an opportunity to claim victory on Tuesday, although the vote totals may shift in the next day or few days giving Biden the win. This would be the maximally chaotic outcome, which naturally means it will happen, causing our nation the highest possible level of psychic damage.

Using the tool on FiveThirtyEight, here are my projections for the swing races:

In this scenario I awarded Trump six of the swing state races, with Biden taking eight. I do think it’s likely that Biden will take at least one of AZ, FL, GA, or NC, but I’m not confident enough in any single one to move it into Biden’s column. I am very pessimistic about Biden winning Texas, despite rumblings of an upset in the Lone Star State.

I am invested in a number of PredictIt markets related to the election. I won’t include the number of shares that I own in each market, but I will caveat that they vary over several orders of magnitude in number. This means that I am much more heavily invested in some outcomes than others. Additionally, some of these positions are held as a hedge against others or even semi-ironically.

First, in Popular Vote Margin of Victory:

+ Dems 3.0–4.5%, + Dems 4.5–6.0%, + Dems 6.0–7.5% ,+ Dems 7.5–9.0%, + Dems 9.0–10.5%

In Electoral College Margin of Victory:

+ GOP 30–59, + GOP 10–29, + Dems 10–29, + Dems 30–59, + Dems 60–99, + Dems 100–149

In 2020 Presidential Election Winner is one I’ve been holding for a while and figure I may as well see it out:

+ Kamala Harris

In Net Change in Senate Seats:

+ Dems +4, + Dems +5

In Which Party Will Win FL in 2020 I contradict my electoral map for the purpose of hedging:

+ Dems

In Balance of Power After the 2020 Election I also hedge:

+ D House, R Senate

In Which Party Will Win WI in 2020:

+ NOT Republican

This one I bought because it was cheaper than betting YES on Democrats, which is interesting because it is definitionally more likely, even if only by a minuscule percentage.

In Woman Elected Vice President in 2020:

+ YES

In Clean Sweep for Democrats in 2020:

+ NO

In Which Party Will Win AZ Senate Special in 2020:

+ NOT Democrat

In Presidential Vote Percentage NOT for GOP/Dem:

+ 1.0–1.5% ,+ 1.5–2.0%, + 2.0–2.5%

This sums up the positions that I am publicly taking prior to the election. May I be judged appropriately for putting these to paper.

Thank you and remember:

Bernie Would Have Won.